THEVALUE · MLB PROJECTIONS
Private beta · limited spots
Sportsbooks publish a market price. We model each game from the underlying data and publish our own estimate of fair value. The difference is where value begins.
11 of 50 beta spots claimed
Updated To fill
Every probability, fair price and published position is recorded so our model can be evaluated against the market over time. Results are historical and do not predict future outcomes.
Since June 4, 2026
+6.36 %
ROI (return on investment) on 418 bets
The curve climbs sharply at first, then pulls back and settles. That is the normal behavior of a growing sample: the first few weeks always overstate things, in either direction. The only number that matters is the full cumulative total, never an intermediate peak.
| Market | Bets | Record | Units | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | 303 | 145-156 | +12.52 u | +5.17 % |
| Totals | 115 | 59-51 | +9.89 u | +9.00 % |
| Month | Bets | Record | Units | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June | 79 | 39-37 | +2.38 u | +3.80 % |
| July | 246 | 120-124 | +14.06 u | +6.58 % |
| August | 93 | 45-46 | +5.97 u | +7.89 % |
Since April 14, 2026
+6.73 %
ROI (return on investment) on 270 Search-tagged moneyline bets
This is a different model from MLB Projections above: bets flagged by a contextual search process rather than the quantitative fair-price model, moneyline only. Real stakes vary bet to bet here; results are normalized to units of $200 for direct comparison with the numbers above.
Sharp bettor · Modeling & data
Experienced data analyst with a strong background in statistical analysis and predictive modeling. He applies a data driven approach to sports betting, building models designed to identify inefficiencies and value in the market.
Sharp bettor · Markets & +EV
Sports bettor with over eight years of experience, specializing in +EV betting, arbitrage, and market analysis. His focus is on understanding how betting markets move and identifying opportunities where the odds may be mispriced.
Limited beta access
One email each morning with the full board, the fair price on every game, and the picks that cleared the threshold.
We’re opening to a small group of bettors first. An edge only stays an edge while few people are on it, so the beta is capped on purpose.
Free during the beta. No card required. Unsubscribe anytime. When the spots are gone, new signups join the waitlist for the next group.